![]() If the MLB postseason began today, Houston would have a first-round bye in the playoffs and then face the winner of the AL Wild Card’s No. The Houston Astros lead the AL West, giving them the No. The Orioles would have home-field advantage through the AL playoffs. As the top seed, Baltimore would have a first-round bye for the AL Wild Card series and would face the winner of the No. 1 seed if the MLB postseason began today. The Baltimore Orioles would be the American League’s No. 5 Chicago CubsĪmerican League playoffs forecast AL No. 2 seed – Los Angeles Dodgers – First Round Bye 1 seed – Atlanta Braves – First Round Bye 2 seed – Houston Astros – First Round Bye 1 seed – Baltimore Orioles – First Round Bye I think both starters will allow at least two earned runs, and we have plenty of opportunity for more.Related: New York Yankees game today: TV schedule, channel, and more MLB playoff picture today I believe the biggest edge and best value is through the first five innings. I am extremely confident in the bullpens, especially after resting yesterday, so I’m staying away from the full game total even though that’s where I’d lean on the full game. I’m not very confident in either of these starters today, but I am confident that both offenses can get it going. While the Astros are a better offense against lefties, they are incredible at home. Castillo hasn’t faced the Astros on the road in front of that loud crowd. He might be finding his groove, or he could get run up on by this elite Astros offense. He threw five times over 27.2 innings and allowed 15 runs, 12 earned, to give him a 3.90 ERA. September was the worst month of the year for Castillo. I don’t normally think much of this, but again, this is just a small edge that you can add to an overall larger edge. He’s not only been slightly worse pitching on the road, but his ERA jumps from 2.55 during the night to 3.76 during the day. Screenshot from Baseball SavantĬastillo also has some interesting splits. This is an elite fastball/sinker-hitting team, with the big boppers in the lineup doing major damage off of those pitches. The issue with him today is the harder you throw it to the Astros, the harder they hit it. ![]() Luis Castillo was blowing gas against the Blue Jays, routinely touching 99 MPH against the Blue Jays’ offense. They were around the same during the night and the day on offense. They were also slightly better against lefties, rocking a. 688 OPS at T-Mobile Park, one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. They were much better hitting on the road this season, putting up a. The Mariners also have some intriguing splits of their own. The Mariners are a pesky team and while Valdez kept them on the ground, they were able to find holes in the infield enough to get to him. Over 13.2 innings, he allowed 13 hits and six earned runs to give him a 3.95 ERA. He faced them once at home and once on the road but both produced similar outputs. Valdez has faced the Mariners on two separate occasions this season. The Mariners’ offense has seen him plenty and has been able to score off him despite the underlying analytics looking so strong. Not only has it continued, but it’s also been more drastic.Īt home, Valdez went 7-4 with a 3.54 ERA with a. In 2021, he had worse splits at home and that’s carried over into this year. Valdez has been a bit off at home in the past couple of seasons. He’s been stellar this season, but he does have strange home/road splits. He’s able to go deep into games due to quick counts from ground-ball outs. ![]() ![]() Will he continue this magic against an elite Astros offense? I’m not so sure.įramber Valdez is the quality start king. Castillo was everything the Mariners hoped for when they acquired him at the deadline. He threw seven shutout innings while allowing six hits and five strikeouts. Luis Castillo looked like an ace in his last start against the Blue Jays. We saw a fantastic debut from both offenses in a staunch pitching matchup, so why wouldn’t we see that again today? It took one swing from Yordan Alvarez to give Houston the 8-7 win. The Mariners jumped out to an early lead off Justin Verlander but the Astros closed in on them near the end of the game. We head to Minute Maid Park for game two in what is already a riveting series.
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